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  4. Technical Documentation for HRSA’s Health Workforce Simulation Model
  5. V. Physician Model Components
  6. Physician Model Components Exhibit Data

Physician Model Components Exhibit Data

Exhibit V-4: Probability Physician Remains Active in the Workforce

Anticipated Retirement Age Medical Specialty (Female) Other (Female) Primary Care (Female) Surgery (Female) Medical Specialty (Male) Other (Male) Primary Care (Male) Surgery (Male)
50 0.003786 0.033271 0.003435 0.017896 0.007938274 0.008028 0.007679461 0.001036
51 0 0 0 0 0.002288586 0.000841 0 0
52 0 0.004836 0 0 0.000970812 0 0.001793158 0.00204
53 0.003562 0 0.003363 0 0 0 0 0
54 0 0.003172 0 0.004881 0 0 0 0
55 0.033666 0.052747 0.045051 0.085815 0.021172404 0.048022 0.019651758 0.020724
56 0.003761 0.003359 0.003417 0.005739 0.003886537 0.00294 0.002101965 0.003919
57 0.004296 0.005164 0.006785 0.010012 0.004004715 0.003341 0.002009192 0.003471
58 0.003108 0.011345 0.016874 0.020826 0.004460613 0.014516 0.003627967 0.008397
59 0.009595 0.017958 0.004532 0.006041 0.00117039 0.00709 0.001923562 0.00213
60 0.137632 0.133042 0.153682 0.135791 0.05781915 0.104112 0.068345408 0.065925
61 0.005067 0.002798 0.002182 0.079098 0.008259404 0.003119 0.003347048 0.004667
62 0.033373 0.036603 0.051594 0.036002 0.011682054 0.040733 0.041061303 0.032724
63 0.005114 0.03498 0.025175 0.014146 0.014252117 0.017688 0.012243636 0.010682
64 0.009025 0.00415 0.018867 0.493687 0.014773143 0.011361 0.009582574 0.015323
65 0.388105 0.36613 0.3374 0.025166 0.21143223 0.22567 0.197236885 0.21645
66 0.013115 0.028627 0.065109 0.107441 0.027156456 0.038881 0.038577723 0.061294
67 0.162558 0.103182 0.151304 0.092746 0.075754965 0.10367 0.098736745 0.129168
68 0.059915 0.098213 0.154212 0 0.109502953 0.073522 0.097270118 0.111293
69 0.04032 0.079043 0.025696 0 0.026427147 0.046489 0.027384299 0.033141
70 0.349163 0.453039 0.578929 0.600876 0.365807553 0.409047 0.378600099 0.427679
71 0.029781 0.039041 0.036172 0 0.038340632 0.033166 0.047232538 0.028377
72 0.266897 0.104652 0.189929 0.215913 0.144982719 0.174036 0.157696557 0.180706
73 0 0.027186 0.050289 0 0.039311809 0.044313 0.046829746 0.061455
74 0 0 0 0.077376 0.047400689 0.053446 0.047266404 0.045831
75 0.777713 0.589632 0.595863 0.346322 0.471644993 0.527755 0.538913415 0.489234
76 0.343061 0 0 0.105657 0.080180823 0.050574 0.088839056 0.028789
77 0 0 0.127385 0.088476 0.078592204 0.09061 0.021101896 0.026984
78 0 0.237132 0.086329 0 0.131219682 0.073268 0.099733438 0.189983
79 0 0 0 0 0.040243518 0.021129 0.011776177 0.078145
80 0.505914 0.71632 0.677021 0.366964 0.714124043 0.709408 0.613058184 0.515052
81 0 0 0 0 0.063666143 0.149655 0.035416134 0.079929
82 0 0 0.292545 0 0.068995056 0.15287 0.070240244 0.052977
83 0 0 0 0.186457 0 0 0.110928852 0.065585
84 0 0 0 0 0.061219781 0 0 0.027248
85 0.141481 0.244005 0.585662 0 0.546461967 0.17144 0.675929563 0.499548
86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
87 0 0 0 0 0 0.050484 0.133703471 0.057806
88 0 0 0.248017 0 0.108469521 0 0 0.274605
89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.103183757 0
90 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

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Exhibit V-5: Physician Average Total Hours Worked per Week

Specialty (sex) Physician Age Group
<35 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Primary Care (Male) 46.7 47.6 46.4 49.0 46.0 42.5 35.7 31.7
Medical Specialties (Male) 49.9 48.8 49.2 50.3 48.2 45.6 38.5 27.5
Surgery (Male) 56.0 50.5 49.4 51.5 50.5 45.6 40.0 32.6
Other (Male) 49.4 48.1 46.6 46.8 44.3 40.9 38.4 34.6
Primary Care (Female) 47.4 42.9 43.5 44.6 41.6 38.1 31.3 27.3
Medical Specialties (Female) 46.1 46.8 46.7 46.5 44.4 41.8 34.7 23.7
Surgery (Female) 50.4 48.2 47.1 45.9 44.9 40.0 34.3 26.9
Other (Female) 46.4 43.8 43.4 43.4 40.8 37.4 35.0 31.1

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