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  3. Projecting Health Workforce Supply and Demand
  4. Technical Documentation for HRSA’s Health Workforce Simulation Model
  5. V. Physician Model Components
  6. Physician Model Components Exhibit Data

Physician Model Components Exhibit Data

Exhibit V-4: Probability Physician Remains Active in the Workforce

Anticipated Retirement Age Medical Specialty (Female) Other (Female) Primary Care (Female) Surgery (Female) Medical Specialty (Male) Other (Male) Primary Care (Male) Surgery (Male)
50 0.995287695 0.992976736 0.991595483 0.989329011 0.99125767 0.989923 0.997303 0.995807
51 0.995287695 0.992976736 0.991595483 0.989329011 0.989458525 0.989923 0.996764 0.995807
52 0.995287695 0.992976736 0.989369156 0.989329011 0.987157436 0.989923 0.996764 0.995807
53 0.995287695 0.992976736 0.989369156 0.983040749 0.987157436 0.989923 0.996764 0.995807
54 0.995287695 0.992976736 0.987821797 0.983040749 0.987157436 0.989923 0.996764 0.993965
55 0.953337697 0.946656976 0.960732404 0.923105426 0.976918825 0.96472 0.983735 0.972233
56 0.953337697 0.942659636 0.958027891 0.917978185 0.974429211 0.96286 0.982146 0.97111
57 0.953337697 0.936442321 0.958027891 0.917978185 0.973362852 0.960519 0.980566 0.968406
58 0.931111806 0.922631449 0.951201903 0.917978185 0.966323731 0.955006 0.975074 0.965666
59 0.922185973 0.918691214 0.951201903 0.91245654 0.962449996 0.952331 0.972454 0.965666
60 0.829401842 0.793174183 0.851702166 0.78635218 0.910816553 0.879674 0.912522 0.901023
61 0.829401842 0.793174183 0.848779235 0.78635218 0.909545182 0.876035 0.911634 0.901023
62 0.799572885 0.753083176 0.799771889 0.740865629 0.888719456 0.850035 0.887327 0.876742
63 0.795633089 0.738326167 0.785701875 0.711963442 0.872455262 0.830454 0.87277 0.867596
64 0.795633089 0.730902536 0.776358318 0.705095495 0.860941624 0.819953 0.865736 0.851381
65 0.4589935 0.485305179 0.48920623 0.420329021 0.683025524 0.630609 0.667143 0.643592
66 0.432494011 0.471751757 0.469707449 0.389605318 0.664632419 0.58731 0.631607 0.615614
67 0.409439818 0.417204157 0.405525275 0.362831118 0.60300796 0.544987 0.563248 0.557044
68 0.358227118 0.362478809 0.365385378 0.336683449 0.533591914 0.498388 0.511663 0.501105
69 0.358227118 0.354094798 0.361167854 0.330231741 0.526130344 0.487393 0.502527 0.492434
70 0.172884153 0.152634208 0.145431805 0.097777906 0.27932698 0.265439 0.255049 0.270339
71 0.167159868 0.148132771 0.139394398 0.097777906 0.269363553 0.245442 0.242735 0.260867
72 0.141375616 0.122623615 0.112883033 0.084889477 0.224425421 0.203663 0.208926 0.210874
73 0.141375616 0.118659083 0.105592505 0.078229649 0.214117972 0.194982 0.194971 0.199371
74 0.138053827 0.118659083 0.104574927 0.078229649 0.203699932 0.186806 0.187507 0.189956
75 0.036371904 0.051822136 0.042333135 0.028019288 0.106182247 0.086555 0.091465 0.089863
76 0.036371904 0.04831255 0.039536396 0.02446966 0.097668877 0.082827 0.080937 0.085897
77 0.033349772 0.04831255 0.039536396 0.02446966 0.090654823 0.077335 0.073227 0.0839
78 0.029087121 0.042126923 0.036202694 0.02446966 0.078690107 0.07455 0.0663 0.076909
79 0.029087121 0.039728519 0.036202694 0.02446966 0.077146497 0.070052 0.065586 0.075026
80 0.008883783 0.023816736 0.008453587 0.012545049 0.021693475 0.030839 0.027102 0.021976
81 0.008883783 0.023816736 0.008453587 0.007197595 0.021693475 0.030839 0.027102 0.018239
82 0.008883783 0.023816736 0.008453587 0.007197595 0.021693475 0.026843 0.026265 0.018239
83 0.008883783 0.023816736 0.008453587 0.007197595 0.019259894 0.026843 0.026265 0.016298
84 0.008883783 0.023816736 0.008453587 0.007197595 0.017903388 0.026843 0.025524 0.016298
85 0.008883783 0.013591964 0.001805686 0.007197595 0.010635232 0.015955 0.012872 0.003227
86 0.008883783 0.013591964 0.001805686 0.007197595 0.009021458 0.015955 0.012508 0.003227
87 0.008883783 0.013591964 0.001805686 0.007197595 0.009021458 0.013946 0.012508 0.003227
88 0.008883783 0.013591964 0.001805686 0.007197595 0.009021458 0.013946 0.011781 0.003227
89 0.008883783 0.013591964 0.001805686 0.007197595 0.009021458 0.013007 0.011781 0.003227
90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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Exhibit V-5: Physician Average Total Hours Worked per Week

Specialty (sex) Physician Age Group
<35 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Primary Care (Male) 50.6 47.5 48.5 47.9 45.0 42.0 36.0 33.7
Medical Specialties (Male) 45.9 52.4 50.3 51.1 47.4 46.3 39.2 25.9
Surgery (Male) 52.4 54.7 54.0 51.9 52.0 46.6 41.2 33.1
Other (Male) 48.1 50.4 48.6 48.7 43.5 43.1 42.8 36.0
Primary Care (Female) 47.5 42.3 44.4 45.5 42.6 39.6 33.6 31.3
Medical Specialties (Female) 48.9 46.0 47.4 47.4 43.7 42.7 35.5 22.2
Surgery (Female) 47.9 49.9 46.8 45.6 45.6 40.3 34.8 26.7
Other (Female) 50.4 45.0 44.0 46.9 41.6 41.2 40.9 34.1

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