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Health Workforce Projections

The National Center for Health Workforce Analysis (NCHWA) helps public and private organizations understand how changes in population will affect future workforce demands.

What are the most recent projections data available?

In November 2024, NCHWA released projections for 2022-2037. This page provides summary information on those projections. All projections are available in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.

NCHWA also published these projections briefs in November 2024:

How does this data help?

By estimating supply, demand, and distribution of health care workers, we inform public policy to help prevent shortages and surpluses.

How do we make our projections?

We project the national supply of and demand for health professions by discipline. We use HRSA’s Health Workforce Simulation Model to do this.

What are the projections for health workforce practitioners?

Allied health

The allied health workforce provides specialized care in a variety of disciplines.

NCHWA projects shortages in 2037 for many key allied health occupations, including:

  • 36,820 dispensing opticians
  • 6,480 respiratory therapists
  • 9,140 physical therapists
  • 17,030 pharmacists
  • 4,430 podiatrists
  • 8,190 chiropractors

Note: All data are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTEs).

Additional workforce projections for the allied health workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.

HRSA programs that support allied health include the National Health Service Corps and Community Health Worker Training Program. Expanding these programs would help address these future shortages.

Behavioral health

The increase in demand for behavioral health, mental health, and substance use disorder services in the United States is well-documented.

NCHWA projects shortages in 2037 for many key behavioral health occupations, including:

  • 113,930 addiction counselors
  • 87,840 mental health counselors
  • 79,160 psychologists
  • 50,440 psychiatrists
  • 34,170 marriage and family therapists
  • 39,710 school counselors

Note: All data are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTEs).

These estimates are based on current use of behavioral health services in the United States. They do not address the large amount of unmet need that exists for these same services. Including estimates of this unmet need results in even higher shortages.

For example, an additional 113,830 psychologists would be required by 2037 to meet all unmet need for psychologists. By contrast, 79,160 psychologists are required to address only current use.

Additional workforce projections for the behavioral health workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.

HRSA programs that support the behavioral health workforce include:

Expanding these programs would help to address these future shortages.

Long-term services and support

In 2030, all Baby Boomers will be age 65 or older, accounting for 1 out of every 5 Americans. This group will be an increasingly large part of the U.S. population in the future. They will need a robust, well-trained long-term services and support (LTSS) workforce to meet their needs.

Workforce projections for the LTSS workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.

HRSA programs that support the LTSS workforce include the Geriatrics Workforce Enhancement Program (GWEP) and a Health Workforce Research Center (HWRC) devoted to long-term care.

Nursing

NCHWA projects nationwide nursing shortages, including:

  • 207,980 registered nurses (RNs)
  • 302,440 licensed practical nurses (LPNs)

Note: All positions are full-time equivalents (FTEs).

Additionally, larger shortages of nurses are forecast in nonmetropolitan areas. In 2037, there is a projected shortage of 13% for RNs in nonmetropolitan areas while there is a projected shortage of 5% for RNs in metropolitan areas.

Additional workforce projections for the nursing workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.

Several HRSA programs support nursing. The Nurse Corps Scholarship Program pays education costs in return for a commitment to serve in a Critical Shortage Facility (CSF). The Nurse Corps Loan Repayment Program reimburses a portion of unpaid educational debt in return for serving in a CSF or as nurse faculty in an eligible nursing school. HRSA also supports over 20 nursing grant programs.

Oral health

Oral health plays an important role in the well-being of all Americans.

NCHWA projects shortages in 2037 in key oral health occupations, including:

  • 29,740 dental hygienists
  • 11,860 general dentists

Note: All positions are full-time equivalents (FTEs).

Those outside of metro areas face difficulties in accessing dental care, and these shortages will increase. In 2037, there is a projected shortage of 46% for dentists in nonmetro areas.

Additional workforce projections for the oral health workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.

Several HRSA programs support oral health. The National Health Service Corps offers scholarships and loan repayments to qualified dental clinicians. HRSA also supports oral care grant programs. Expanding these programs would help to address these future shortages.

Physicians

A well-trained, culturally competent physician workforce is vital for keeping Americans healthy. Since it can take over a decade of education and residency to prepare a physician, the United States should take steps now to address future physician shortages. NCHWA projects an overall shortage of 187,130 physicians in 2037.

This shortage includes many physician specialties, such as:

  • 87,150 primary care physicians
  • 8,650 cardiology physicians
  • 9,890 OB-GYNs
  • 8,450 anesthesiology physicians
  • 4,050 nephrology physicians

Note: All data are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTEs).

NCHWA projects shortages across almost all specialties; 31 out of the 35 physician specialties modeled are projected to experience shortages in 2037. Residents of nonmetro areas will face the brunt of these shortages. In 2037, nonmetro areas will experience a 60% shortage of physicians; by comparison, metro areas will experience a 10% shortage.

Additional workforce projections for the physician workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.

HRSA programs that support physicians include:

Expanding these programs would help to address these future shortages.

Primary care

Primary care physicians are often the first contact point for a patient. NCHWA projects a shortage of 87,150 primary care physicians in 2037.

This shortage includes several types of primary care clinicians, including:

  • 43,220 family medicine physicians
  • 28,890 general internal medicine physicians
  • 12,930 pediatricians
  • 2,110 geriatricians

Note: All data are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTEs).

In 2037, nonmetro areas will experience a projected 42% shortage of primary care physicians. This shortage will make it especially difficult for Americans in nonmetro areas to find the care they deserve.

Additional workforce projections for the primary care workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.

HRSA programs that support primary care include:

Expanding these programs would help to address these future shortages.

Women's health

The first goal in the White House Blueprint for Addressing the Maternal Health Crisis (PDF - 912 KB) is to increase access to maternal health services. A well-trained maternal workforce is essential to provide proper care.

NCHWA projects a shortage of 9,890 full-time equivalent (FTE) OB-GYNs in 2037.

Shortages of OB-GYNs will be more severe in nonmetro areas. NCHWA projects a 49% shortage of OB-GYNs in nonmetro areas in 2037.

Additional workforce projections for the women's health workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.

HRSA programs that support women's health include:

How to contact us

Email us at NCHWAinquiries@hrsa.gov.

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