The National Center for Health Workforce Analysis (NCHWA) helps public and private organizations understand how changes in population will affect future workforce demands.
What are the most recent projections data available?
All projections are available in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.
NCHWA also published these projections briefs:
- Nurse Workforce Projections, 2021–2036 (PDF - 159 KB)
- Long-term services and support (PDF - 152 KB)
- Physicians (PDF - 197 KB)
How does this data help?
By estimating supply, demand, and distribution of health care workers, we inform public policy to help prevent shortages and surpluses.
How do we make our projections?
We project the national supply of and demand for health professions by discipline. We use HRSA’s Health Workforce Simulation Model to do this.
What are the projections for health workforce practitioners?
Allied health
The allied health workforce provides specialized care in a variety of disciplines.
Over the next 15 years (through 2036), NCHWA projects shortages in many key allied health occupations, including:
- 46,630 dispensing opticians
- 6,710 respiratory therapists
- 6,510 physical therapists
- 4,980 pharmacists
- 4,400 podiatrists
- 4,080 chiropractors
Note: All data are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTEs).
Additional workforce projections for the allied health workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.
HRSA programs that support allied health include the National Health Service Corps and Community Health Worker Training Program. Expanding these programs would help address these future shortages.
Behavioral health
The increase in demand for behavioral health, mental health, and substance use disorder services in the United States is well-documented.
Over the next 15 years (through 2036), NCHWA projects shortages in many key behavioral health occupations, including:
- 87,630 addiction counselors
- 69,610 mental health counselors
- 62,490 psychologists
- 42,130 psychiatrists
- 27,450 marriage and family therapists
- 21,030 school counselors
Note: All data are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTEs).
These estimates are based on current use of behavioral health services in the United States. They do not address the large amount of unmet need exists for these same services. To attempt to address this unmet need, predicted shortages would worsen.
For example, an additional 95,970 psychologists would be required by 2036 to meet all unmet need for psychologists. By contrast, 62,490 psychologists are required to address only current use.
Additional workforce projections for the behavioral health workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.
HRSA programs that support the behavioral health workforce include:
- Behavioral Health Workforce Education and Training Program
- Graduate Psychology Education Program
- Substance Use Disorder Treatment and Recovery Loan Repayment Program
Expanding these programs would help to address these future shortages.
Long-term services and support
In 2030, all Baby Boomers will be age 65 or older, accounting for 1 out of every 5 Americans. This group will be an increasingly large part of the U.S. population in the future. They will need a robust, well-trained long-term services and support (LTSS) workforce to meet their needs.
Workforce projections for the LTSS workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.
HRSA programs that support the LTSS workforce include the Geriatrics Workforce Enhancement Program (GWEP) and a Health Workforce Research Center (HWRC) devoted to long-term care.
Nursing
NCHWA projects nationwide nursing shortages, including:
- 337,970 registered nurses (RNs)
- 99,070 licenses practical nurses (LPNs)
Note: All positions are full-time equivalents (FTEs).
Additionally, larger shortages of nurses are forecast in nonmetropolitan areas. In 2036, there is a projected shortage of 14% for RNs in nonmetropolitan areas while there is a projected shortage of 8% for RNs in metropolitan areas.
Additional workforce projections for the nursing workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.
Several HRSA programs support nursing. The Nurse Corps Scholarship Program pays education costs in return for a commitment to serve in a Critical Shortage Facility (CSF). The Nurse Corps Loan Repayment Program reimburses a portion of unpaid educational debt in return for serving in a CSF or as nurse faculty in an eligible nursing school. HRSA also supports over 20 nursing grant programs.
Oral health
Oral health plays an important role in the well-being of all Americans.
Over the next 15 years (through 2036), NCHWA projects shortages in key oral health occupations, including:
- 23,320 dental hygienists
- 8,790 general dentists
Note: All positions are full-time equivalents (FTEs).
Those outside of metro areas face difficulties in accessing dental care, and these shortages will increase. In 2036, there is a projected shortage of 28% for dentists in nonmetro areas.
Additional workforce projections for the oral health workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.
Several HRSA programs support oral health. The National Health Service Corps offers scholarships and loan repayments to qualified dental clinicians. HRSA also supports oral care grant programs. Expanding these programs would help to address these future shortages.
Physicians
A well-trained, culturally competent physician workforce is vital for keeping Americans healthy. Since it can take over a decade of education and residency to prepare a physician, the United States should take steps now to address future physician shortages. Over the next 15 years (through 2036), NCHWA projects an overall shortage of 139,940 physicians.
This shortage includes many physician specialties, such as:
- 68,020 primary care physicians
- 7,880 cardiology physicians
- 6,610 OB-GYNs
- 6,300 anesthesiology physicians
- 4,360 nephrology physicians
Note: All data are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTEs).
NCHWA projects shortages across almost all specialties; 30 out of the 35 physician specialties modeled are projected to experience shortages in 2036. Residents of nonmetro areas will face the brunt of these shortages. In 2036, nonmetro areas will experience a 56% shortage of physicians; by comparison, metro areas will experience a 6% shortage.
Additional workforce projections for the physician workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.
HRSA programs that support physicians include:
- National Health Service Corps
- Native Hawaiian Health Scholarship Program
- Faculty Loan Repayment Program
Expanding these programs would help to address these future shortages.
Primary care
Primary care physicians are often the first contact point for a patient. Over the next 15 years (through 2036), NCHWA projects a shortage of 68,020 primary care physicians.
This shortage includes several types of primary care clinicians, including:
- 33,100 family medicine physicians
- 30,080 general internal medicine physicians
- 3,100 pediatricians
- 1,740 geriatricians
Note: All data are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTEs).
In 2036, nonmetro areas will experience a projected 37% shortage of primary care physicians. This shortage will make it especially difficult for Americans in nonmetro areas to find the care they deserve.
Additional workforce projections for the primary care workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.
HRSA programs that support primary care include:
- Bureau of Primary Health Care
- National Health Service Corps, which offers scholarships and loan repayments to qualified primary care clinicians
- Geriatric Workforce Enhancement Program
- Pediatric Loan Specialty Repayment Program
- Teaching Health Center Graduate Medical Education Program
Expanding these programs would help to address these future shortages.
Women's health
The first goal in the White House Blueprint for Addressing the Maternal Health Crisis (PDF - 912 KB) is to increase access to maternal health services. A well-trained maternal workforce is essential to provide proper care.
Over the next 15 years (through 2036), NCHWA projects a shortage of 6,610 full-time equivalent (FTE) OB-GYNs.
Shortages of OB-GYNs will be more severe in nonmetro areas. NCHWA projects a 46% shortage of OB-GYNs in nonmetro areas in 2036.
Additional workforce projections for the women's health workforce can be found in the Workforce Projections Dashboard.
HRSA programs that support women's health include:
- Maternal and Child Health Bureau
- Office of Women's Health
- National Health Service Corps, which offers scholarships and loan repayments to qualified clinicians. Expanding this program would help to address the future shortage of OB-GYNs.
How to contact us
Email us at NCHWAinquiries@hrsa.gov.
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