Demand Modeling Overview Exhibit Data

Exhibit III-5: Population Projections Adjustments to Account for Excess Deaths, 2021-2035

Year	Covid Deaths	Excess Deaths Non-Covid	Total Excess Deaths	Total Excess Deaths
2021	633,504	343,395	977,000	976,899
2022	602,338	333,815	936,000	936,153
2023	570,318	323,731	894,000	894,049
2024	537,608	313,216	851,000	850,824
2025	504,657	302,181	807,000	806,838
2026	471,954	290,760	763,000	762,714
2027	439,636	279,053	719,000	718,689
2028	408,084	266,975	675,000	675,059
2029	377,634	254,641	632,000	632,275
2030	348,567	242,151	591,000	590,718
2031	321,104	229,629	551,000	550,733
2032	295,423	217,156	513,000	512,579
2033	271,482	204,848	476,000	476,330
2034	249,364	192,843	442,000	442,207
2035	223,722	181,169	405,000	404,891

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Exhibit III-6: U.S. Births by Year, 2016-2020

Year	Births
2016	3,945,875
2017	3,855,500
2018	3,791,712
2019	3,747,540
2020	3,613,647

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Exhibit III-7: Pre-COVID Trends in Births Extended to 2021

Year	Annual Births
2016	3,945,875
2017	3,855,500
2018	3,791,712
2019	3,747,540
2020	3,720,000 (trend)
2021	3,690,000 (trend)

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Exhibit III-9: Net International Migration: July 1, 2010 – June 30, 2021

Year	Net Migration	Net Migration (M)
2010	680,000	0.68
2011	785,000	0.79
2012	780,000	0.78
2013	800,000	0.80
2014	925,000	0.93
2015	1,030,000	1.03
2016	1,049,000	1.05
2017	930,000	0.93
2018	702,000	0.70
2019	568,000	0.57
2020	477,000	0.48
2021	247,000	0.25

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Source: United States Census Bureau, Net International Migration at Lowest Levels in Decades.

Net immigration numbers are estimates, as Census Bureau did not publish the actual numbers for all years and some older data have been revised.

Date Last Reviewed:

December 2022