Demand Modeling Overview Exhibit Data

Exhibit III-5: Population Projections Adjustments to Account for Excess Deaths, 2021-2035

Year Covid Deaths Excess Deaths
Non-Covid
Total Excess Deaths Total Excess Deaths
2021 633,504 343,395 977,000 976,899
2022 602,338 333,815 936,000 936,153
2023 570,318 323,731 894,000 894,049
2024 537,608 313,216 851,000 850,824
2025 504,657 302,181 807,000 806,838
2026 471,954 290,760 763,000 762,714
2027 439,636 279,053 719,000 718,689
2028 408,084 266,975 675,000 675,059
2029 377,634 254,641 632,000 632,275
2030 348,567 242,151 591,000 590,718
2031 321,104 229,629 551,000 550,733
2032 295,423 217,156 513,000 512,579
2033 271,482 204,848 476,000 476,330
2034 249,364 192,843 442,000 442,207
2035 223,722 181,169 405,000 404,891

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Exhibit III-6: U.S. Births by Year, 2016-2020

Year Births
2016 3,945,875
2017 3,855,500
2018 3,791,712
2019 3,747,540
2020 3,613,647

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Exhibit III-7: Pre-COVID Trends in Births Extended to 2021

Year  Annual Births
2016 3,945,875
2017 3,855,500
2018 3,791,712
2019 3,747,540
2020 3,720,000 (trend)
2021 3,690,000 (trend)

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Exhibit III-9: Net International Migration: July 1, 2010 – June 30, 2021

Year Net Migration Net Migration (M)
2010 680,000 0.68
2011 785,000 0.79
2012 780,000 0.78
2013 800,000 0.80
2014 925,000 0.93
2015 1,030,000 1.03
2016 1,049,000 1.05
2017 930,000 0.93
2018 702,000 0.70
2019 568,000 0.57
2020 477,000 0.48
2021 247,000 0.25

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Source: United States Census Bureau, Net International Migration at Lowest Levels in Decades.

Net immigration numbers are estimates, as Census Bureau did not publish the actual numbers for all years and some older data have been revised.

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